Relação entre variáveis climáticas e casos de leptospirose humana
Uruguai, 2010-2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29155/VET.61.224.3Palavras-chave:
Zoonose, Temperatura, Precipitação, Mudança climáticaResumo
A leptospirose é uma zoonose bacteriana de distribuição global. No Uruguai, é endêmica e afeta principalmente trabalhadores rurais e alguns grupos urbanos. Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a relação entre variáveis climáticas e casos humanos de leptospirose no Uruguai entre 2010 e 2023. As variáveis climáticas foram correlacionadas com os casos mensais confirmados de leptospirose em diferentes períodos de defasagem (lag). Um modelo de regressão binomial negativa foi então ajustado para avaliar o número mensal de casos com base nas variáveis significativamente correlacionadas. Um total de 1218 casos confirmados foi registrado durante o período do estudo. A temperatura média mensal apresentou a maior correlação positiva com os casos do mês seguinte (lag 1) em todo o país. A precipitação acumulada teve a correlação mais forte com os casos em lag 1 tanto em nível nacional quanto na região sul, enquanto no norte a maior correlação foi observada em lag 2. Meses com precipitação acima da média e com inundações apresentaram significativamente mais casos do que os meses com precipitação média ou abaixo da média. Segundo o modelo, cada aumento de 1 °C na temperatura média mensal esteve associado a um aumento de 8,9 % nos casos do mês seguinte, enquanto cada aumento de 10 mm na precipitação acumulada foi associado a um aumento de 3,3 %. Esses achados ressaltam a necessidade de reforçar as ações de prevenção, vigilância e diagnóstico da leptospirose nos centros de saúde, especialmente após meses quentes, chuvosos ou com ocorrência de inundações. Isso é particularmente relevante no contexto das mudanças climáticas, que vêm aumentando as temperaturas médias e a frequência de eventos climáticos extremos.
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